Ping An Bank (000001) listed company’s brief comment: NIM rebounds with certainty
Event March 6th, Ping An Bank took the lead in publishing the 2018 annual report, in which operating income increased continuously by 10.
30%, net profit attributable to mother increases by 7.
Brief Comment 1. The growth rate of single-quarter results in the fourth quarter rebounded sequentially, and the contribution of non-interest business increased significantly.
For the whole of 2018, the company achieved operating income of 1,167.
1.6 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.
30% in the fourth quarter, a quarterly increase of 15 half a year.
79%, 1 higher than Q3.
57 single; realized net profit attributable to mother 248.
180,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.
00%; Q4 increased by 8.
08%, 0 higher than Q3.
Regardless of revenue and net profit attributable to mothers, all four quarters are accelerating.
From a structural point of view, █’s net income increases by 1 each year.
0%, non-interest income increased by 32 in ten years.
08%, non-interest income accounted for 36.
00%, an increase of 6 per year.
Profitability declined slightly.
The preliminary company’s nominal average ROE is 11.
49%, a decrease of 0 from last year.
13 units, but ROA reaches 0.
73%, an increase of 0 from last year.
02 averages; EPS is 1.
39 yuan / share, an increase of 0 from last year.
09 yuan; BVPS is 12.
82 yuan / share, an increase of 1 over last year.
2. Interest income turns positive every year. A number of measures have pushed NIM to pick up quarterly interest rates in the second half of the year.
Initial company realized net interest income of 747.
45 ppm, an increase of ten years.
0%, which was negative growth last year, with index revenue growing by 10 per year.
00%, while short-term expenditures increase by 19.
On the income side, the growth in loan interest income contributed most significantly to 72.
6%, an increase of 24 per year.
4%, and because of the 18-year improvement in liquidity margins, interbank assets and bond investment income have declined, especially bond investment income income has gradually declined16.
8%, accounting for 17 of total interest income.
On the expenditure side, competition pressure in the deposit market intensified last year, and corporate deposits must be reduced to reduce expenditure costs and increase 31.
0%, accounting for 56.
3%; on the contrary, the decrease in the cost rate of the interbank loss reduced the expenses of this part by 2.
However, when the inter-bank supervision is still tight and the pressure on the debt end of each bank is relatively high, the main bond issuance costs of inter-bank certificates of deposit are still high until the growth rate and the proportion reach 8 respectively.
10% and 17.
On the NIM side, starting in the second quarter of 2018, the company has distorted the drift trend.
The initial NIM is 2.
35%, a decrease of 0 from last year.
02 units, while the net interest margin in the first half of the year was only 2.
26%, the net interest margin in the second half of the year stabilized and rebounded quarter by quarter, Q4 has reached 2.
The company has taken the following measures: first, to optimize the asset structure and increase the placement of retail loans; second, to actively adjust the debt structure to replace high cost resistance; third, to actively use internal pricing management to guide the negative capital structure in advance; and fourth, to widenThe debt sources, especially the 35 billion financial bonds issued at the end of the year, the interest rate was only 3.
79%, consolidating the source of medium and long-term assets at low cost.
In 2019, we expect the company’s NIM to continue to improve. Eventually: on the debt side, restructuring the company’s retail transformation will bring more AUM; the 19-year conversion will be more accommodative, and the repricing effect of interbank liabilities will gradually be released. The profit coefficientCost; on the asset side, under the company’s strategy of “retail breakthroughs and fine business practices”, resources will be tilted towards high-yield assets, increasing the comprehensive return on assets.
3. Non-interest income grows by 32 each year.
At 08%, the increase in bank card fees and changes in accounting standards are preliminary for the company to achieve non-interest income of 419.
71 ppm, an increase of 32 in ten years.
Among them, the net income of intermediate business increased by 2 every year.
0%, other non-interest income increased by 867 in ten years.
The continuous increase in bank card fee income is the main source of growth in intermediate business income.
The initial intermediate business income reached 393.
61 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
2%, and bank card fee income reached 252.
6.6 billion, accounting for 64.
19%, an increase of 36 per year.
At the same time, agency and commission fee income also increased by 23 per year.
In addition, due to the impact of the new rules on asset management, the company’s wealth management business fee income decreased by 60% to 13.
Initially, other non-interest income was 106.
740,000 yuan, an increase of 867 in ten years.
7%, mainly in accordance with the requirements of the new financial instrument accounting standards, the “financial instruments measured at fair value and whose changes are recorded in the current profit and loss” income / expenses from interest income / expenses are included in investment income.
4. The non-performing rate has picked up, but the pressure for bad confirmation will be severely reduced in the future. The non-performing rate will increase by 5 BP.
As of the end of 18 years, the company’s non-performing loan balance was 349.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.
4%, an increase of 7.
58 samples; adverse consequences1.
75%, an increase of 5 BP earlier, an increase of 7 BP compared to the end of the third quarter.
The increase in non-performing loans mainly came from the non-performing recovery of new loans, credit cards and other retail loans, and some 90-day overdue loans were identified as the cause of non-performing loans. Among them, the non-performing loan ratio of new loans increased by 35 blood pressure, and the non-performing credit card ratio increased by 14Mainly affected by external factors such as the downturn of the macro economy and the outbreak of public debt risks, risks in the consumer finance industry have caused rises.
At the beginning of 18, the company has carried out risk prevention and control proactively, reducing the proportion of high-risk customers, and the asset quality of the newly delivered business is stable and improving.
For example, credit card, new loan, auto financing and other three newly issued customers accounted for only 0 after 6 months of overdue.
18% and 0.
16%, which is 6, 2 and 2 BP lower than last year.
Potential potential risks have decreased significantly.
Mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, the proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days continued to decline.
At the end of 18, the company’s loan overdue for more than 90 days accounted for 1.
70%, a decrease of 73 blood pressure compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 30 blood pressure compared with the end of the third quarter.
Secondly, all loans that are overdue for more than 90 days have all overlapped badly.
At the end of 18, the company’s non-performing loan scissors difference was only 97%, which fell by 46 and 22 batches earlier and at the end of the third quarter, respectively.
Second, the proportion of focused loans also declined.
At the end of 18, the proportion of attention-oriented loans was 2.
73%, down 97 units from the beginning of the year and 34 BP from the end of the third quarter.
On the basis of larger problem assets collection and disposal, the company also increased the provision and write-off of provisions.
As of 2018, the company’s nuclear sales loans amounted to US $ 45.8 billion, an increase of US $ 6.6 billion; the expansion and overall company provision coverage increased by 4.
As of the end of 18 years, the company’s provision coverage ratio reached 155.
24%, an increase of 4 earlier.
16 units; the loan-to-loan ratio is 2.
71%, an increase of 0 earlier.
In addition, the initial corporate credit cost ratio is only 2.
35%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.
5. The retail business transformation continued to deepen, and the average contribution of the asset and liability end increased. (1) The performance contribution of the retail business continued to rise.
The retail business’ operating income accounted for 53% of the bank’s revenue, an increase of 8.
9 averages; net profit accounted for 69 of the entire bank.
0%, an increase of 1 from last year.
With the semi-annual report data index, the revenue contribution and net profit contribution of the long-term retail business are higher than in the first half of the year.
8 and 1.
1 average, which means that the performance contribution of the retail business in the second half of the year is still large.
(2) Retail business is the main source of the company’s growth in 2018.
Throughout 2018, the company’s total assets increased by 5 per year.
30%, while the loan budget grows by 17 per year.
2%, of which retail loan growth rate is as high as 35.
90% of public loans fall by 1 each year.
Deposits overall have increased by 6 each year.
40%, while retail deposits grew by 35 in ten years.
40%, the increase in public deposits increased by 0 in only ten years.
(3) Therefore, the proportion of retail deposits and loans is still increasing.
At the end of 2018, the company’s retail loans accounted for 57.
80%, higher than the third quarter.
50 units, 7 higher than the beginning.
98 units; retail deposits accounted for 21.
7%, 2 quarters higher than the previous quarter.
19 averages, 4 higher than the beginning.
Judging from the average daily balance, the current average daily balance of the company’s retail loans is only 54.
93%, at least 5% of the upside from the company’s “June 4” goal.
On the deposit side, the increase in the size of AUM through wealth management by private banks will also continue to bring more subdivision retail deposits.
(4) In-depth transformation of retail business.
At the end of 18, the 四川耍耍网 company’s managed retail customer AUM had reached 1.
42 trillion, an increase of 30 from the beginning of the year.
4%, an increase of 16 over the end of the second quarter.
The number of retail customers reached 83.9 million, an increase of 20 earlier.
0%, of which wealth customers are 59.
160,000 households, an increase of 29 from the end of last year.
It is worth noting that the number of private line customers reached 30,000 at the end of the year, an increase of 27 from the end of the previous year.
7%, and only 9% in the first half.
6%, mainly due to the integration and integration of the Ping An Trust management team and customers in the second half of the year.
In addition, corporate credit cards are growing by 34 per year.
At 4%, the number of monthly active APPs of Pocket Bank APP increased by 74 year-on-year.
6%, both maintained a 厦门夜网 very pleasing growth rate.
6. The effect of light capital operation is prominent and the pressure for capital replenishment is lighter. At the end of 2018, the company’s core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 8, respectively.
39% and 11.
50%, all meet the regulatory compliance requirements, which are respectively increased by 0 compared with the end of last year.
21 and 0.
At present, the company has completed the issuance of 26 billion convertible bonds on January 25. After entering the conversion period after 6 months, it can continue to replenish core tier 1 capital and further increase the capital adequacy ratio.
In addition, the company is also actively promoting the issuance of 30 billion qualified secondary capital bonds.
7. Investment suggestion The potential of Ping An Bank’s asset-side risks and the continuous improvement of the retail side will help its estimated repair.
The operating results for 2018 show that it has no pressure of bad confirmation, the potential risks are significant, and the improvement of the retail resistance side and asset side is very significant, which helps to contribute to the estimation.
Moreover, the significant risk will continue in 19 years, and the retail end is also improving, and it is estimated that the repair requirements are higher.
The main reasons for recommending Ping An in 19 years are: Firstly, the advantages of the retail side continue to increase, with the focus on: the development of private banks, the growth of retail deposits, the proportion of retail loans continues to increase, and the structure of optimization;The focus is: the proportion of overdue loans in total loans has declined; third, it is estimated to be low, and it is estimated to be zero in 19 years.
89 times, compared with the industry average estimate, the advantage is more significant.
In the future, we expect that the enhancement of retail-side advantages and the significant transformation and development of private banks will help contribute to their higher retail premium.
We have always been very optimistic about the transformation of Ping An Bank’s retail business, and after the proportion of retail loans has increased to 58%, it will accelerate its expansion to retail banks2.
0 Transformation to accelerate the development of private banking.
At present, Ping An Trust’s wealth management team has been fully integrated into the Ping An Bank’s private banking department. Later, it will gradually begin the conversion of high net worth customers, thereby realizing the development path of private banks that connect private banking customers and equity products. We are optimistic about this business.The future development prospects will not only promote the continuous upgrading of the retail business, but will also contribute to this and make a difference. After all, private bank customers have a higher AUM.
Judging from the company’s results in 2018, Ping An Bank is mainly characterized by five characteristics: first, the performance growth rate is accelerating quarter by quarter; second, NIM is rising quarter by quarter, and the probability of continued recovery in 19 years is the same; third, the potential risk on the asset side is decreasing.
Although the non-performing ratio has not improved, the pressure for non-performing confirmation in the future will be reduced, and the risk of newly issued retail loans will be reduced. Fourth, retail income will be restored, and the proportion of retail loans will continue to rise.
Retail contribution is still increasing, retail loans and retail deposits are growing at a rate of 35%, and the proportion of retail loans is rising to 57.
Fifth, the transformation effect of light banks was prominent, and all three indicators continued to rise month-on-month.
As far as the company is concerned (13.
08 yuan) has exceeded the convertible bond conversion (11.
77 yuan) 11.
13%, it is expected that by July, the conditions for compulsory conversion will likely be reached, and core tier 1 capital will increase significantly.
After the increase of core tier 1 capital, the company will increase the issuance of public debt, which will also help reduce pressure on the deposit side and debt costs.
We expect the company’s operating revenues to increase by 19/20 respectively13.
86% / 15.
91%, net profit increased by 12 each year.
10% / 14.
08%, EPS is 1.
85 yuan, 14 for BVPS.
59 yuan, the corresponding PE is 8.
08 times, the corresponding PB is 0.
6-month target price of 17 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.